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I know that we’re all checking the weather forecast to see how far below zero the temps will drop or how much snow will come, but there’s a new, more positive forecast you can check now. It’s the South Dakota high school hoops playoff forecast!
The playoffs are just around the corner. Most teams have just a couple games of regular season play remaining, so it’s time to reveal my playoff forecast for SD high school basketball.
I developed an algorithm to give an accurate projection as to which teams have the best chance to play in the “SoDak 16” (or the round of 16 in Class A and Class B), to advance to the state tournament and to take home the championship. The factors in the formula include:
- Score differential
- Strength of schedule
- Emphasis on the last two weeks of play
- Quantity of wins and losses
- Quality of wins and losses
- Team injuries
- Team’s consistency
I threw all that information into the computer, and it churned out the following numbers.
| Boys AA | % Chance to Make State | % Chance to Win It |
|---|---|---|
| SF Lincoln | 98% | 14% |
| Yankton | 94% | 11% |
| SF O'Gorman | 92% | 11% |
| Brandon Valley | 74% | 10% |
| SF Roosevelt | 72% | 9% |
| RC Stevens | 71% | 9% |
| Huron | 68% | 8% |
| Harrisburg | 58% | 7% |
| Sturgis Brown | 46% | 6% |
| Watertown | 35% | 5% |
| SF Washington | 28% | 3% |
| RC Central | 27% | 2% |
| Brookings | 18% | 2% |
| Pierre T.F. Riggs | 8% | 1% |
| Mitchell | 6% | 1% |
| Aberdeen Central | 2% | <1% |
| Spearfish | 1% | <1% |
| Douglas | 1% | <1% |
| Girls AA | % Chance to Make State | % Chance to Win It |
|---|---|---|
| SF O'Gorman | 98% | 18% |
| SF Lincoln | 94% | 14% |
| Brandon Valley | 92% | 14% |
| Brookings | 70% | 12% |
| Harrisburg | 69% | 11% |
| SF Washington | 68% | 10% |
| RC Stevens | 68% | 9% |
| Mitchell | 59% | 7% |
| Sturgis Brown | 48% | 1% |
| Douglas | 35% | 1% |
| RC Central | 34% | 1% |
| Yankton | 33% | 1% |
| Aberdeen Central | 18% | 1% |
| Huron | 8% | <1% |
| SF Roosevelt | 6% | <1% |
| Watertown | 2% | <1% |
| Pierre T.F. Riggs | 1% | <1% |
| Spearfish | 1% | <15 |
| Boys A | % Chance to Make SoDak16 | % Chance to Make State | % Chance to Win It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tea Area | 99% | 98% | 46% |
| SF Christian | 99% | 91% | 16% |
| St. Thomas More | 99% | 90% | 14% |
| Lennox | 55% | 50% | 5% |
| Tiospa Zina | 91% | 67% | 3% |
| Pine Ridge | 87% | 72% | 3% |
| Parker | 93% | 68% | 3% |
| Red Cloud | 63% | 51% | 3% |
| Dakota Valley | 44% | 33% | 1% |
| Aberdeen Roncalli | 63% | 22% | 1% |
| Sioux Valley | 86% | 37% | 1% |
| Cheyenne-Eagle Butte | 84% | 31% | 1% |
| Little Wound | 38% | 22% | 1% |
| RC Christian | 66% | 15% | <1% |
| Winner | 14% | 7% | <1% |
| Hot Springs | 38% | 6% | <1% |
| Vermillion | 8% | 6% | <1% |
| Madison | 53% | 5% | <1% |
| Dell Rapids | 53% | 5% | <1% |
| Hamlin | 43% | 5% | <1% |
| Platte-Geddes | 59% | 4% | <1% |
| Mobridge-Pollock | 51% | 4% | <1% |
| West Central | 24% | 3% | <1% |
| Todd County | 11% | 2% | <1% |
| Flandreau | 38% | 2% | <1% |
| Bon Homme | 41% | 2% | <1% |
| Redfield/Doland | 29% | 1% | <1% |
| Girls A | % Chance to Make SoDak16 | % Chance to Make State | % Chance to Win It |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Central | 99% | 98% | 23% |
| Winner | 96% | 94% | 22% |
| Lennox | 93% | 84% | 19% |
| St. Thomas More | 93% | 78% | 13% |
| Todd County | 89% | 73% | 8% |
| Vermillion | 57% | 40% | 5% |
| McCook Central/Montrose | 93% | 68% | 4% |
| Belle Fourche | 94% | 67% | 3% |
| SF Christian | 64% | 42% | 3% |
| Hamlin | 92% | 66% | 2% |
| Flandreau | 72% | 28% | 2% |
| Miller | 82% | 1% | 1% |
| Redfield/Doland | 87% | 8% | 1% |
| Beresford | 48% | 1% | 1% |
| Dell Rapids | 24% | 1% | 1% |
| Hill City | 13% | 14% | 1% |
| Aberdeen Roncalli | 89% | 18% | 1% |
| Pine Ridge | 26% | 6% | 1% |
| Red Cloud | 15% | 1% | 1% |
| Crow Creek | 67% | 4% | <1% |
| Mt. Vernon/Plankinton | 34% | 3% | <1% |
| Cheyenee Eagle Butte | 39% | 3% | <1% |
| Parkston | 62% | 2% | <1% |
| Flandreau Indian | 20% | <1% | <1% |
| Little Wound | 14% | <1% | <1% |
| Garretson | 14% | <1% | <1% |
| Lead-Deadwood | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| Boys B | % Chance to Make SoDak16 | % Chance to Make State | % Chance to Win It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clark/Willow Lake | 95% | 91% | 19% |
| Bridgewater-Emery | 89% | 84% | 18% |
| White River | 99% | 88% | 17% |
| Viborg-Hurley | 87% | 79% | 15% |
| De Smet | 86% | 72% | 10% |
| Sully Buttes | 82% | 68% | 8% |
| Timber Lake | 99% | 84% | 6% |
| Jones County | 88% | 36% | 2% |
| Hanson | 62% | 42% | 1% |
| Northwestern | 45% | 23% | 1% |
| Warner | 44% | 22% | 1% |
| Aberdeen Christian | 44% | 33% | 1% |
| Dell St. Rapids St. Mary | 38% | 8% | 1% |
| Canistota | 24% | 10% | <1% |
| Kimball/White Lake | 72% | 9% | <1% |
| Leola/Frederick Area | 62% | 7% | <1% |
| Colman-Egan | 40% | 7% | <1% |
| Irene-Wakonda | 16% | 7% | <1% |
| Colome | 46% | 6% | <1% |
| Arlington | 65% | 5% | <1% |
| Lower Brule | 36% | 5% | <1% |
| Lemmon | 58% | 5% | <1% |
| Potter County | 38% | 3% | <1% |
| Highmore-Harrold | 35% | 3% | <1% |
| Corsica-Stickney | 15% | 3% | <1% |
| Faith | 13% | 2% | <1% |
| Wolsey-Wessington | 14% | 1% | <1% |
| Herreid/Selby Area | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| Harding County | 15% | 1% | <1% |
| Sanborn Central/Woonsocket | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| Kadoka Area | 10% | 1% | <1% |
| Oelrichs | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| Gayville-Volin | 8% | 0% | <1% |
| James Valley Christian | 5% | 0% | <1% |
| Elkton-Lake Benton | 5% | 0% | <1% |
| Faulkton Area | 4% | 0% | <1% |
| Bison | 3% | 0% | <1% |
| Marty | 2% | 0% | <1% |
| Girls B | % Chance to Make SoDak16 | % Chance to Make State | % Chance to Win It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan | 99% | 98% | 42% |
| Warner | 91% | 72% | 18% |
| Corsica-Stickney | 92% | 74% | 16% |
| De Smet | 87% | 87% | 7% |
| Faith | 96% | 88% | 5% |
| Freeman | 80% | 56% | 4% |
| Deubrook Area | 62% | 44% | 2% |
| Ipswich | 66% | 51% | 1% |
| New Underwood | 72% | 46% | 1% |
| White River | 62% | 33% | 1% |
| Clark/Willow Lake | 73% | 26% | 1% |
| Bridgewater-Emery | 71% | 25% | 1% |
| Avon | 70% | 24% | <1% |
| Herreid/Selby Area | 58% | 16% | <1% |
| Tripp-Delmont/Armour | 36% | 10% | <1% |
| Hanson | 51% | 8% | <1% |
| Irene-Wakonda | 45% | 7% | <1% |
| Kadoka Area | 49% | 5% | <1% |
| Faulkton Area | 42% | 5% | <1% |
| Estelline/Hendricks | 26% | 4% | <1% |
| Andes Central/Dakota Christian | 12% | 3% | <1% |
| Florence/Henry | 21% | 3% | <1% |
| Langford Area | 13% | 3% | <1% |
| Sully Buttes | 22% | 3% | <1% |
| Timber Lake | 55% | 3% | <1% |
| Menno | 9% | 2% | <1% |
| Castlewood | 14% | 2% | <1% |
| McIntosh | 46% | 2% | <1% |
| Wall | 15% | 1% | <1% |
| Waubay/Summit | 6% | 1% | <1% |
| Viborg-Hurley | 17% | 1% | <1% |
| Lower Brule | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| Waverly-South Shore | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| Arlington | 8% | <1% | <1% |
| Wolsey-Wessington | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| Highmore-Harrold | 5% | <1% | <1% |
If the playoffs started today, and the favored teams won in their regions, this would be the SoDak 16 pairings:
Boys AA
- 16-Spearfish at 1-SF Lincoln
- 15-Mitchell at 2-Yankton
- 14-Pierre at 3-Brandon Valley
- 13-Brookings at 4-SF O’Gorman
- 12-RC Central at 5-SF Roosevelt
- 11-SF Washington at 6-RC Stevens
- 10-Watertown at 7-Huron
- 9-Sturgis Brown at 8-Harrisburg
Girls AA
- 16-Watertown at 1-SF O’Gorman
- 15-SF Roosevelt at 2-SF Lincoln
- 14-Huron at 3-Brandon Valley
- 13-Aberdeen Central at 4-Brookings
- 12-Yankton at 5-Harrisburg
- 11-Douglas at 6-SF Washington
- 10-RC Central at 7-RC Stevens
- 9-Sturgis Brown at 8-Mitchell
Boys A
- 16-Platte-Geddes vs 1-Tea Area
- 15-Mobridge-Pollock vs 2-SF Christian
- 14-Dell Rapids at 3-St. Thomas More
- 13-Madison vs 4-Pine Ridge
- 12-Sioux Valley vs 5-Tiospa Zina
- 11-Aberdeen Roncalli vs 6-Parker
- 10-RC Christian vs 7-Lennox
- 9-Cheyenne-Eagle Butte vs 8-Red Cloud
Girls A
- 16-Crow Creek vs 1-West Central
- 15-Parkston vs 2-Winner
- 14-Miller vs 3- Todd County
- 13-Redfield/Doland vs 4-Belle Fourche
- 12- Aberdeen Roncalli vs 5-Hamlin
- 11-SF Christian vs 6-St. Thomas More
- 10-Flandreau vs 7-Lennox
- 9-Vermillion vs 8-McCook Central/Montrose
Boys B
- 16-Lemmon vs 1-White River
- 15-Colome vs 2-Timber Lake
- 14-Colman-Egan vs 3-Jones County
- 13-Arlington vs 4-Bridgewater-Emery
- 12- Kimball/White Lake vs 5-Clark/Willow Lake
- 11-Leola/Frederick Area vs 6-De Smet
- 10-Hanson vs 7-Sully Buttes
- 9-Northwestern vs 8-Viborg-Hurley
Girls B
- 16-Timber Lake vs 1-Ethan
- 15-Hanson vs 2-De Smet
- 14-Tripp-Delmont/Armour vs 3-Faith
- 13-Herreid/Selby Area vs 4-Corsica-Stickney
- 12- Bridgewater-Emery vs 5-Warner
- 11-Clark/Willow Lake vs 6-Deubrook Area
- 10-White River vs 7-Freeman
- 9-New Underwood vs 8-Ipswich
Filed Under
Power Rankings
|
Basketball
|
Varsity Sports
|
SD High School